Weatherproofing Farmers Through Climate Services

Unpredictable weather variations and extreme events are now being seen as signs of the coming of climate change. This variability in climate, as also highlighted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), poses risks for food security. This calls for evaluation of various adaptation and mitigation options that can secure farmers’ livelihoods and provide food for all.

Our farmers’ presumptive analysis of the weather through traditional knowledge and age-old experience has long held them and their crops in good stead. Today, climate information and advisory services sent to farmers, on their mobile phones, are helping make agriculture more resilient towards the impacts of a varying climate.

The 2 Ts boost – technology and telecom

In India, these services have seen a giant leap of a change in last 10 years. The traditional “Farmers’ Weather Bulletin” and TV broadcasts including All India Radio have now evolved into sophisticated climate products and services delivered using ‘techno-social’ tools – smart phones and mobile apps.

The years 2006-07 saw a surge in agro-met services with companies like Nokia Life tools and Reuters Market Light (RML) entering the Indian market, which for a long time was served only by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). Today, weather information is also accompanied with market-related information, helping farmers get fair bargains for their produce.

The growth in number of farmer subscribers for climate services has been overwhelming. Over 50 lakh farmers have been reached in the state of Maharashtra only, while the number across India is in excess of 1.5 crore.

Technologies for effective dissemination and outreach are kicking in and are being implemented at scale by IMD’s Agro Meteorology Programme, GKMS (Grameen Krishi Mausam Seva). Innovations at local levels are also being experimented with. For e.g. Watershed Organisation Trust’s (WOTR) Agro-Meteorology program uses Automated Weather Systems (AWS) to improve the effectiveness and accuracy of local weather information. The farmers are informed about their local weather conditions almost real time through AWS, allowing them take more weather informed decisions.

Scaling and Downscaling

Scaling up of such experiments is a must but it poses several challenges. Since India has diverse topography and climatic conditions, the extent of village-level, farmer -specific data available is very limited. Also, there are limitations for downscaling district level or block level weather forecasts right up to the village-level.

What makes scaling further complicated are the institutional challenges that arise due to the amount of coordination required for generating and delivering advisories. The climate services sector in India is an example of a consortium of knowledge networks made up of private, public and not-for-profit institutions, including universities. This means that every advisory service requires collaboration between at least 3-4 different institutions!

Bottom up Responses

Farmers at their end are also using technology to battle the forces of weather variations. Using their smart phones they have formed crop-specific Whatsapp groups, which act as hyper-local communication platforms for and by farmers. This is an example of a bottom-up process of development and implementation of adaptation measures. Farmers can self-advise and readily share information among peers, such as response to pest attacks, differences in market prices etc.

TERI has been studying climate services system in India through its Indo-Norwegian Research Project on Governance of Climate Services. The project is a three-year study that analyses conditions for effective governance of climate services in India. It compares 4 Indian agro-meteorological service systems, both public and private to study how they are governed and if they provide rural farmers with tailored and participatory services in Maharashtra.

The project’s findings would be up for discussion at this year’s World Sustainable Development Summit from 15th to 17th February 2018. Do join us!

For more information visit – http://wsds.teriin.org/

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Challenge of Policy Making for Climate Change Adaptation

Farmers in India and across the world are witnessing new variations in weather and seasonal changes. The challenge to take decisions under these variations gets compounded because often there is no precedent to it. What decisions work best can be known through experimentation and mostly in hindsight. This makes adaptation to climate change a complex process. The cause-effect conundrum, i.e. which solution gives what result is almost impossible to predict with certainty. Thus, human decision making under such unforeseen situations needs to be aided by additional information or decision support systems. Climate Services, the delivery of weather based agriculture advisories using ICT, help aid farmer’s decision making process by providing timely weather forecasts and corresponding advisories on agricultural practices.

The information farmers receive on climate services provides them with an option of incorporating it into their agriculture decision making. But it is almost impossible to measure with certainty how much of this information do they incorporate, in what form and when. This makes impact evaluation of adaptation solutions, like climate services, a very challenging exercise. At times even the farmers are unable to clearly demarcate the important variables they use for their decision making process. This is so because in order to cope with weather variations there are many possible actions and solutions to be experimented with. But the most effective solutions may not be known to them at the early stages and thus their decision making keeps evolving as they experiment with a set of solutions. Through this process of iterative decision making they learn to adapt to weather variations. This makes adaptation a highly localized and continuous process with no clear traces of solution impact pathways. But a set of good practices evolve over time.

Challenges to measure or generate evidence of adaptation further hinder the uptake and popularity of good practices. There is also a theoretical difficulty in establishing units for measuring adaptation and establish monitoring systems for its evaluation. This makes communicating adaptation through evidence a very difficult task. It also challenges the imagination of policy makers who mostly rely on numbers for estimating impacts. For example, the climate mitigation negotiations use the 2°C limit of temperature rise as the reference for determining how much emissions need to be reduced to achieve this climate goal. But in case of adaptation there is a dearth of quantifiable numbers which could guide the policy planning process. Thus, policy making for adaptation requires a shift of two kinds

1)   Moving away from relying only on numbers, and

2)   Decentralization of policy making to account for localized adaptation processes.

This shift further brings up two challenges

1)   How to measure what is intangible or un-measured, and

2)   At what scale should the policy making process be localized.

Unless research on climate change adaptation focuses to find answer to these two challenges, policy making for adaptation to climate change would remain a very challenging task.

Note: This article was first posted on my linkedin on October 3, 2016 for TERI’s World Sustainable Development Summit 2016. Link: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/challenge-policy-making-climate-change-adaptation-mihir-mathur/

Drawdown, A Book on Reversing Climate Change

Dear Friends,

I am very pleased to share with you the release of book Drawdown by
Paul Hawken. The book analyses and simulates climate impacts (reduction in atmospheric CO2 eq ppm) of 100 climate solutions which if implemented at scale could reverse global warming. I was fortunate to be part of the project and did a fellowship to contribute to two chapters 1) Reducing Food Waste (#3 in climate impact ranking) and 2) Family Planning (#6/7 in climate impact ranking). It was a wonderful experience to be part of the global fellowship and do the number crunching exercises with technical writing.

Source: http://www.drawdown.org/

The book is a first of its kind and a must read for everyone who is interested in sustainability, climate change, business, environment and even those who are climate skeptics. The solutions go beyond just climate change and offers future scenarios which could be useful for development of green businesses. The scope and potential is immense and the time to act is “Now”.

You can know more about the book, its solutions and buy a copy of it from http://www.drawdown.org/.

Please circulate it widely and we welcome your questions, thoughts and critics on the work.

Thank you,
Mihir.

The Idea of Localisation

Here is a note on my views of localization and why it is an effective way of achieving a sustainable society.

I welcome reader’s comments on this.

Vision: Communities thrive on resilient exchange of local goods and services in sustainable ecosystems for their overall well-being.
Mission: Enable social transformation towards more localized economy through regeneration and conservation of ecosystems and creation of local green jobs

Why go local?
Many reasons,
a. Learning is a feedback process. Behavior would modify if we receive feedback on our actions in relatively short time. Eg. While driving a vehicle the speedometer provides a feedback, similarly the fuel gauge also provides a feedback where we can take proactive steps to refuel in time. On these lines if our daily actions start providing us with feedback it will help us to be aware of the consequences our actions would have and affect behavior modification. Hence, it is important to collapse the space time between cause and effect. This is not possible if distant actions affect remote communities and ecosystems much beyond the temporal and spatial boundaries of the people living in those places. This delay creates blindness and hence restricts their learning process and awareness towards the consequences of their actions. The large delay involved between the unsustainable consumption practice and its impact on environment could very well close the window of opportunity where proactive actions could be taken to recover the situation or adapt to it. Thus it is important to go local and as much as possible have a close loop economy where what goes comes back in relatively short time. This could enable a self-governing system.
b. Complexity needs to be managed and harnessed. Tools which help us analyze data and make sense are good to understand situations which we don’t know. But at least here we are aware that we don’t know. Hence, it can be known through use of methods, tools, technology etc. But what happens when we don’t even know that we don’t know? The current situation of climate change, ecosystems degradation, governance issues, and economic uncertainty is interrelated, interconnected and interdepended in nature. I am not very sure how the tools which we use to understand complicated stuff would work in this complex situation. Hence, if the world is banking on technology, mathematical modeling and other forecasting tools to help us understand what we don’t know then it could be a recipe of disaster. The world has become too interconnected for us to comprehend its mischievous nature. Thus we need to decouple and start working with subsystems. We have to first make it manageable and then harness the complexity involved in it. Thus, going local is more manageable to develop models of change which may get adapted when the time comes.
c. Many subsystems make up the entire system. Top down approaches for development and policy often get disconnected with the local context. Hence set of best practices does not account for local diversity rather it relies on standardizing practices and one size must fit all type of approach. Rather a bottom up approach which self optimizes itself over a period of time would ideally take into account the local diversity and priorities. Policies and practices evolving from ground could have more acceptance and endurance as compared to top down planning.
How to go local?
a. Local but not isolated. Going local does not imply cutting ourselves from the external environment. It does not imply boycotting or living on isolated territories. In fact 100% local would not allow for risk transfers to take place through exchange of resources. Thus, it is only advisable to have semi closed economy where local substitution takes place for goods and services which are consistent with local priorities and are feasible in the near term.
b. Import substitution. Participatory appraisal would be the key for deciding on what to substitute, what resources are required for that substitution to take place, what their state is and how to maintain or achieve the desired state.
c. Green jobs. In most likelihood the state of local ecosystem and ecosystem services would be below the threshold for their sustainable consumption. Thus, it could very well be the case where regenerating and conserving ecosystems becomes the immediate action and people, institutions engaged in these activities earn their livelihood by providing their services. These could also be termed as local green jobs. It is of utmost importance that they earn through regeneration and conservation of ecosystems since this would provide them immediate incentives instead of motivating them for long term anticipated benefits.
d. Local currency. If green jobs are to be paid then a local revolving fund where the medium of exchange is not rupee but a local currency which cannot be used outside the locally decided boundaries but can be used for purchase and sale of local goods and services can be established. This initial infusion would then keep revolving within the community through exchange and transaction of local goods and services. But we will have to put more thought on the design of such a system.
e. Building credibility. Going local may not be the solution to all the problems and that’s not the idea of localization. It has to be seen as a systemic response to the multiple stresses of resource depletion, climate change and macroeconomic oscillations. The objective is to establish a proof of concept and test our assumptions in a safe manner. Most of our learning would come from failures and the pedagogy would evolve as we keep experimenting. Hence, the project should be done in the spirit of experimentation and not to prove success. We should seek to build credibility of the approach/concept and enhance our own understanding in an evolutionary manner.
f. Safe fail approach. It is only ethical that the size and nature of interventions should be such that even if they fail they don’t hurt the community or cause long term damage. They have to be small, diverse and must be developed in participatory manner.

Local Exchange Systems – Building Resilience

Local Exchange Systems

Here (above link) is a discussion paper, “Local Exchange Systems – Designing Community Incentives” which pitches localisation as one of the systemic and strategic ways of building adaptive capacity of communities towards climate change and potential risks of economic globalization. This was part of my Climate Change Adaptation work at WOTR (www.wotr.org)

It examines the role of alternative economics to provide incentives in form of coupons, vouchers, tokens, rewards etc. to people for ecosystem regeneration, local production and consumption of goods and services. The objective of the paper is to facilitate a discussion on the potential local economics holds in building adaptive capacities of communities to facilitate adaptation.

Lets create a discussion thread on this!!

Below is the abstract of the paper:

Abstract: Economic Globalization in its current form is a centralizing juggernaut which often causes large-scale resource depletion in remote eco-systems, unpredictable price variations in essential commodities and lead to macroeconomic upheaval. Coupled with this is the potential of widespread impacts of Climate Change which increases the vulnerability of human settlements especially the resource poor within. In context of the dual risks of economic globalization and climate change, Localisation appears to be the most systemic response mechanism. Localisation is the manifestation of a decentralized, democratized economy that allows communities to develop ecosystems based Climate Resilient Economies.